Population dynamics model
This simulator uses a modified Leslie matrix approach with three age classes (juvenile, subadult, adult)
and stochastic environmental and demographic variation. Each simulation runs 200 independent Monte Carlo
replicates to generate confidence intervals. Key features include density-dependent mortality, Allee
effects via mate limitation, inbreeding depression on juvenile survival (following Ralls et al. 1988),
stochastic immigration via habitat corridors, and catastrophic events (disease, severe winter) at
approximately 5% annual probability.
Important caveats. This is a simplified educational model.
Real-world reintroduction planning requires spatial population viability analysis (PVA) using software
such as Vortex or HexSim, field-validated habitat models, detailed livestock conflict assessments,
genetic sampling from source populations, and multi-stakeholder regulatory review. Parameter values
here are drawn from published literature but represent broad estimates, not site-specific field data.
Use this tool to build intuition, not to make management decisions.